The Prediction of the Rate of the Dropout of the Primary Schools Students by Using the Genetic Algorithm

Sabah Manfi Redha

Abstract


In this research, the ARIMA model of the time series has been applied for the prediction of the rate of the dropout of the primary schools for the male and female students during the period (2007-2015) by estimating the autocorrelation and partial coefficients. It shows that the time series is unstable. After estimating autocorrelation and partial coefficients, it manifests that the appropriate ARIMA models (1,1,0) for males and ARIMA (1,1,0) for females and ARIMA (1,1,0) for males and females together. Also, it has been assured that these models are good and give accurate predictions and close to the reality through statistical calculation Q. It turns out that the selected models are appropriate and good. Finally, the prediction of the rate of the dropout of the primary schools for the male and female students during the period (2007-2015) and required results were obtained by using the Genetic Algorithm through the applications (MATLAB R2013a Version: 8.1) and (GRETL 2016).


Keywords


prediction; ARIMA model; genetic algorithm

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